Half-time / full-time reversals

Home/Away means the home side leads at half-time and the away side wins; Away/Home is the opposite. They are the rarest half-time/full-time results: about 2.5% and 3.0% of top-flight matches since 2019/20.

Each fixture's expected goals come from the pre-match odds where they are available, otherwise from the score model. A half-by-half model turns them into a probability, corrected for how often trailing sides recover. The correction was fitted on the five-substitution era and tested on 7,335 later matches.

Earlier meetings and each team's comebacks and collapses are listed for context. Across fifteen seasons they did not predict later reversals once team strength was known, so head-to-head carries no weight in the estimate.

Forecasts are included with membership. Even the most likely reversal usually stays below 5%; these are estimates, not betting advice. Please read our responsible gambling page.