AEK Athens vs Real Madrid prediction and preview

AEK Athens vs Real Madrid

Champions League · Wednesday 4 November 2026, 17:45 UTC · OPAP Arena

AEK Athens · Real Madrid · Champions League predictions

AEK Athens host Real Madrid in the Champions League on Wednesday 4 November 2026, kick-off 17:45 UTC at OPAP Arena. AEK Athens sit 27th on 3 points after 3 matches, while Real Madrid sit 5th on 9 points after 3 matches.

AEK Athens have collected 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats from their last 5 league games; Real Madrid have 5 wins, 0 draws and 0 defeats over the same stretch. Over their last 5, AEK Athens have scored 1.4 and conceded 1.6 goals per game, with 3 of those matches going over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring in 2. Real Madrid average 3.0 scored and 1.0 conceded across their last 6, with 2 clean sheets.

The sides have met 2 times in the records we hold: AEK Athens won 0, 2 games were drawn and Real Madrid won 0. Those games averaged 5.0 goals, 2 finished with more than 2.5 goals and both teams scored in 2. The most recent meeting, on 21 Oct 2002, ended Real Madrid 2-2 AEK Athens.

AEK Athens list 7 absentees, including Thomas Strakosha (injury), Dereck Kutesa (suspension) and João Mário (injury). Thomas Strakosha has featured heavily in recent matches. Real Madrid are without Ferland Mendy (injury), Rodrygo (injury) and Raúl Asencio (injury). Maurizio Mariani is the appointed referee. Across 231 earlier matches in our data the average is 4.4 yellow cards per game and 0.3 penalties per game, and home sides won 46% of those games.

This is one of the free forecasts on FootballPlazza: our model rates AEK Athens 38%, the draw 22% and Real Madrid 40%, with a 68% chance of more than 2.5 goals. Bookmaker prices, with the margin removed, imply 9%, 13% and 78%. Probabilities describe uncertainty; they are not guarantees.