MANCHESTER City’s fate lies in the hands of the independent commission hearing the financial allegations that have hung over the club for the past 18 months.
But while it is theoretically possible that the Etihad club could be banned from any competitions if they are found guilty it is, simply, not going to happen.
Yes, if the commission decides the Prem charges have been proven, any and all punishments are available.
That would include expulsion from the League and relegation into the lower tiers.
But nobody, seriously, in the real world, believes City will be banished from the top four levels of the pyramid and cast into the National League – the only way in which they would be ineligible to play in the Carabao Cup.
And while the FA will ratify any punishment imposed by the Prem, the commission has NO remit that allows it to impose a sanction that applies to any other competition.
As in so many potential scenarios, the word “may” can do an awful lot of heavy lifting.
I, for example, at 57, “may” be a shock signing for Arsenal. It won’t happen. But, theoretically, it “may”. If I suddenly win a few billion and buy the club, for example. Which “may” happen. But won’t.
What is more intriguing – and could cause a difficult series of conversations – is a scenario in which City, having been found guilty – a very big “if” given the club’s vehement and persistent denials of all the allegations – were to win the Champions League this season, after being given a points deduction that ensures relegation.
Under Uefa regulations, the holders of the competition have an AUTOMATIC right to try to retain their trophy.
But all representatives of a country can only play in European competition if their names are proposed by the national federation.
In other words, while people often do not realise it, no club can play in Europe without FA endorsement – normally something that is guaranteed.
It would therefore fall on the FA – after discussions with Uefa – to decide if City’s name should be put forward. Similar issues would arise if they won either this season’s Carabou or FA Cups.
As for the looming Club World Cup, City are already confirmed as participating, by dint of their 2022 Champions League win.
Fifa rules do not give holders automatic entry to competitions, so even if they win in the USA next summer, they would have to qualify through Uefa.
And if they are relegated even to the Championship, meaning at least a two season Uefa absence, they would have to win the Champions League in 2028 to qualify.
