Manchester City will likely finish the 2024-25 season with their lowest point total in nine seasons, and while they will compete for a trophy in Saturday’s FA Cup final against Crystal Palace — stream LIVE, 11:20 a.m. ET, ESPN+ — they suffered early exits in the Champions League and League Cup. Along the way, they endured a miserable 13-game stretch in all competitions when they won one, drew three and lost nine. That’s a steep fall for a club that had won the Premier League in six of the previous seven years and new sporting director Hugo Viana will oversee the rebuild.
In some ways, it has already begun, with the club spending nearly €250 million to acquire a host of younger players, including some (Vitor Reis, Abdukodir Khusanov, Juma Bah) who are unlikely to have a short-term impact. So if on the one hand, there’s long-term planning, on the other, there are a bunch of unknowns that could derail the process.
The biggest unknown right now — the 115 charges (actually, 130 charges) brought by the Premier League — could render any planning moot if the club are expelled from competition and/or heavily fined (worst case scenario). We won’t have a definitive outcome for a while, so the club are obliged to press on regardless.
There will also be questions that extend to manager Pep Guardiola. His deal was up at the end of 2024-25 and he chose to extend it in November 2024 for another two seasons. He’s obviously a special case in that contracts have relative value with him — given all he’s done for the club, you can’t imagine an acrimonious split — but this club has an end-of-cycle feel to it. You have to wonder whether he wants to be part of a medium-term rebuild through youth (as the January signings suggest), or whether he wants to get back to competing at the highest level straight away.
There’s another element to this too, and it has to do with the ownership. This summer will mark 17 years since Abu Dhabi took over, and they’ve pumped hundreds of millions of pounds into the club both directly (in the pre-Financial Fair Play days) and indirectly, via sponsorships. The idea was to get a return in terms of image for the Emirate while building a business. After nearly two decades, mostly marked by success on the pitch, you wonder what the appetite is to continue supporting the project. Abu Dhabi is now very much on the map, their sovereign wealth fund, Mubadala (which is run by City chairman Khaldoon Al Mubarak), is one of the biggest in the world.
Did the City project serve its purpose? Might they be wiling to move on or find other investors?
Indeed, some view the club’s legal battles, the long-term transfer strategy in January and the way they’ve become more aggressive about extracting match day income at the Etihad as a sign as a sign that they’re gearing up for a more sustainable model that might be more appealing to potential investors or buyers, but we’re not going that far.
We’re assuming that if Guardiola committed to staying another two years, it’s because he wants to get back to winning ways straight away. After all, following several seasons of muted spending, they have a lot of room to move this summer within financial stability rules, and they made a long-term commitment to Erling Haaland. In fact, we think they could push the boat out as high as €150m, especially as they’ll get a windfall from their performances at this summer’s Club World Cup as well.
Editor’s note: This is the fourth in this year’s series, Keep or Dump, over the coming weeks on which players to keep, extend and move on from for all the top clubs in the Premier League and Europe. Find the article on Arsenal right here, Manchester United can be found here, and our Liverpool version is here.
Keep/dump ground rules
Remember: This is our assessment of what we think the club should do, player for player, with the squad at its disposal. It’s not what we think the club will actually do, though sometimes the two will align. That said, we take into account what we know of the club, coaching staff and player preferences, as well as its financial situation and any other factor that we think will impact personnel moves.
Where we disagree, or where we think our rationale is worth explaining, we’ve noted below.
Goalkeepers
Éderson (31 years old, contract expires in 2026)
Ogden: I don’t think Guardiola rates any of his keepers. He hasn’t backed Ederson or Ortega all season. I think you can get £20m in fees for Ederson, as he’s still only 31.
Marcotti: He’s been inconsistent the past two seasons and I agree that you have to think long and hard before committing to a two- or three-year extension. Moving him for a fee is going to be very difficult, though — it’s the classic case where there’s a limited number of clubs that can afford top goalkeeper wages, have a need for a goalkeeper, are the sort of place he’d want to move to and are willing to pay you a transfer fee. In fact, I’m not sure anybody meets all four criteria.
Rather than lose him for little return, because I don’t think you’ll get much more than £10m in those circumstances, I think you’re best off keeping him and assessing the situation down the road.
Verdict: Split between move, and keep but do not extend his contract
Stefan Ortega (32, 2026)
Marcotti: I assume he wants to be a No.1, and that’s not going to happen here — he’s actually older than Ederson. I doubt you’ll get much for him.
Ogden: Unless somebody really likes him, he’s not going to move. Instead, he’ll just let his contract run down. Oh, and if you sign a top keeper to replace Ederson, Ortega’s obviously not going to want to extend.
Verdict: Move him on
Scott Carson (39, 2025)
Ogden: They like keeping him around, so if he’s happy to stay and not play, they might as well extend him.
Verdict: Keep and extend his contract
Defenders
Rúben Dias (27 years old, contract expires in 2027)
Ogden: He’s a very good defender, but he’s had two inconsistent seasons in a row. There’s no need to give him a new deal.
Verdict: Keep, but do not extend his contract
Abdukodir Khusanov (21, 2029)
Ogden: He’s got a long way to go. The Man City of 2-3 years ago would have loaned him out.
Marcotti: I guess it depends on what happens with the other defenders and he can cover multiple positions, which is useful. But unless you can get him meaningful minutes, loan him out.
Verdict: Keep, but look to loan out
Nathan Aké (30, 2027)
Marcotti: At his age, he’s not getting a new deal and while he’s versatile, he’s also often injured. I think you can get some money back for him.
Ogden: You keep him because he’s experienced, can play leftback or centreback, and there are other players — like John Stones — who you need to get out.
Verdict: Split between move on, and keep but do not extend his contract
Manuel Akanji (29, 2027)
Ogden: Akanji started well at City and highlighted how they’ve always been able to find top players at the cheaper end of the market too — his transfer fees were only £15m from Borussia Dortmund — but he has regressed this season. Despite that, you keep him for his versatility and experience.
Marcotti: I thought he was exceptional in his first season and solid in his second. He can play any position in the back four, he’s a good guy to have around, and he’s a lot more durable than Ake.
Verdict: Keep, but do not extend his contract
John Stones (30, 2026)
Marcotti: He has made 18 league starts in the past two years, and he’s tough to move on. You’re not going to get much money in transfer fees for him and when he’s fit, he contributes.
Ogden: He has become City’s Luke Shaw due to his fitness record. It’s sad to see because he has been an outstanding player, but it’s time to move on. He doesn’t bring any value to the team now. You may not get much for him, but you’ll get something.
Verdict: Split between keep but do not extend his contract, and move on
Vitor Reis (19, 2029)
Ogden: He played one minute in the Premier League and obviously isn’t ready. Guys like him and Khusanov represent a departure from the past, when City bought ready-made players. Loan him to see if he develops.
Verdict: Loan him out
Josko Gvardiol (23, 2028)
Verdict: Keep but do not extend his contract
Rico Lewis (20, 2028)
Ogden: He looked good when he came into the team and they were doing well. Then, this season, they do worse and he doesn’t look so good. He’s got a bit of (Arsenal defender) Oleksandr Zinchenko about him: I think you move him on and recoup something in transfer fees.
Marcotti: I’m not sure he’s part of the future as anything other than a squad player, but I’m not going to write him off based on one season. If you’re going to look to move him on, you can do so next summer. City players tend to still yield decent transfer fees.
Verdict: Split between move on, and keep
Nico O’Reilly (20, 2028)
Ogden: He’s very good, an attacking midfielder who has adapted to the fullback role. Pep absolutely loves him for his ability and physical presence. I’m not sure where he plays, but he’s on his original contract and he deserves improved terms.
Verdict: Keep and extend his contract
Matheus Nunes (26, 2028)
Ogden: He’s doing a job at rightback and, of course, can play midfield too, though let’s not forget that Guardiola recently said he’s “not clever enough” to play in midfield. He has to do well at rightback to stay in the team.
Marcotti: You probably want to upgrade the rightback position, but it’s good to know he’s there as a Plan B. Given the massive fee paid, you can’t afford to move him right now anyway.
Verdict: Keep
Kyle Walker (34, 2026, on loan at Milan)
Marcotti: I doubt Milan are going to pick up his option, so he’s got to go somewhere, I don’t think he wants to come back and not play.
Ogden: It’s a tricky one, really. He has no future under Guardiola at City, and it was clear before his loan that he could no longer perform at the Premier League level. But at 34 and on a big salary, nobody will pay to sign him permanently, which means City will have to loan him out again.
Verdict: Move him on
Yan Couto (22, 2026, on loan at Borussia Dortmund)
Marcotti: He didn’t play much at Dortmund, but I guess they liked him enough to pay €24m in fees to make it a permanent move. It’s a good fee, too.
Verdict: Will be joining Dortmund on a permanent basis this summer
Issa Kaboré (23, 2027, on loan at Werder Bremen)
Marcotti: He hardly played on loan at Benfica, and then got injured at Werder Bremen during a second loan. I guess you loan him again.
Verdict: Loan him out
Juma Bah (19, 2028, on loan at RC Lens)
Ogden: City went through a lot of trouble to sign him from Zaragoza, and it got very messy for the player. But you need to loan him again as he’s not experienced enough.
Marcotti: He’s only started 16 top-flight games in his career. I’d take him to the Club World Cup and let Pep assess him before figuring out what to do with him. I think you can keep a young fourth or fifth centerback on your books and let the manager get a long hard look at him. You can always loan him in January if he’s not getting minutes.
Verdict: Split between loan, and keep but assess his progress before making a decision
Midfielders
Rodri (28 years old, contract expires in 2027)
Marcotti: I don’t see how you can even think about extending him until he proves his fitness. I’m not saying wait until next year, but he has to show you that he can play at a high level again.
Ogden: You have to give him a new contract or at least make the gesture. Show faith in him: he won the Ballon d’Or. It may not be the best business decision, but you have to do it for the message it sends, otherwise he will have justification for seeking a move next year — Real Madrid are constantly linked to him.
Verdict: Split between keep but do not extend his contract, and keep and extend his contract
Nico Gonzalez (23, 2029)
Marcotti: I think they vastly overspent on fees for him, and it’s not clear to me where he fits once Rodri is fit. And no, I don’t think he’s a Rodri replacement either.
Verdict: Keep
Mateo Kovacic (31, 2027)
Ogden: He’s fairly unremarkable and not a first-choice starter, but he’s a body in midfield, which is important with Kevin De Bruyne leaving.
Verdict: Keep, but do not extend his contract
Ilkay Gündogan (34, 2026)
Ogden: He got an extra year because he played enough games, but his legs have gone. His return to the club from Barcelona last summer was very unlike City, and maybe an early sign of a change of direction with recruitment. He played more games than he should have done because of Rodri’s injury.
Marcotti: He got his extension, fine, but you have to be clear with him and tell him he’s staying even though he’s going to play very little. And maybe he’ll want to leave.
Verdict: Already kept and extended (clause in his contract was already triggered due to minutes played)
Bernardo Silva (30, 2026)
Ogden: Every year you hear stories about how he wants to leave and then he ends up staying. There’s no reason to give him a new deal, and no reason for him to sign it.
Marcotti: Let him run his contract down and see where you are in June or, if he really wants to go, he can find himself a team and a reasonable fee. He still contributes and he generally stays fit.
Verdict: Keep, but do not extend his contract
Kevin de Bruyne (33, 2025)
Marcotti: It’s funny how, after supposedly being unfit and on his last legs, he ended up playing a ton at the end of the season.
Ogden: It’s the right time to let him go. He’s a great player, but he’s 34 in June and has missed over 40 games through injury since the start of last season. City have rightly taken the emotion our of the contract decision and looked at the facts of the matter.
Verdict: Released
Claudio Echeverri (19, 2028, on loan at River Plate)
Ogden: He’s been starting for River this season. In the same spirit as what we said about Juma Bah, bring him back, assess him and then if there’s no room for him, loan him out in January.
Verdict: Keep
James McAtee (22, 2026)
Ogden: He wants to play, but he doesn’t get much time on the pitch. The suggestion is he could be a replacement for Bernardo Silva, and he’s drawn interest from Bayer Leverkusen and Borussia Dortmund. Offer him a new deal and if he doesn’t take it, move him on.
Marcotti: I don’t know that it’s a good idea to extend him only to preserve his transfer value. You do it if you think he can contribute. I’m not sure he’s going to — not as a starter, anyway.
Verdict: Split between move on, and keep and extend his conversation
Kalvin Phillips (28, 2028, on loan at Ipswich Town)
Ogden: It’s amazing to think he has another three years left on his contract, and he’ll go down as one of the club’s worst-ever signings. Leeds are back in the Premier League: maybe they’ll take him.
Marcotti: Nobody will give you a transfer fee, and he didn’t have much of an impact at Ipswich either. You have to loan him out and subsidize the loan.
Verdict: Loan him out
Máximo Perrone (21, 2028, on loan at Como)
Marcotti: He’s done pretty well at Como under Cesc Fabregas, and they may want to try and make the deal permanent. I think you only do that if it’s a sizeable fee or if you get a decent buy-back clause — otherwise, take him to the Club World Cup, let Guardiola take a look and again, if you don’t think he’s going to help you, loan him again. You’ll find a taker.
Verdict: Keep and assess his progress
Forwards
Jérémy Doku (22 years old, contract expires in 2028)
Verdict: Keep
Jack Grealish (29, 2027)
Marcotti: With £33m in unexpired amortization and his big wages at Man City, they’re not going to be able to move him.
Ogden: I feel sorry for Grealish. He served a purpose for City, helping them achieve a Treble in 2023, but he has his fair and natural game crushed out of him by Guardiola. He needs to move, but unless City take hit on the transfer fee, nobody will be able to afford it.
Verdict: Keep, but do not extend his contract
Phil Foden (24, 2027)
Ogden: He’s hit a bit of a brick wall, and I think he might be getting to the point where he’s getting a bit frustrated, which could means he is open to a move. He might not want a new contract at this stage. Why sign a new deal if the future looks like the last 12 months? He could become City’s Trent Alexander-Arnold.
Marcotti: I’d try to extend him to see if he can get back to where he was a year ago, when he was player of the year. But if Guardiola decides he’s not going to build the team around him and he’s open to a move, I think it would be wise to shift him. Chelsea got £50m in fees for Conor Gallagher a year ago and he had just a year left on his deal. I’d imagine you’d get considerably more than that for Foden.
Verdict: Split between keep and extend his contract, and move on
1:48
Should Phil Foden think about leaving Man City?
Mark Ogden discusses how Phil Foden’s future could possibly be away from Manchester City
Savinho (21, 2029)
Verdict: Keep
Oscar Bobb (21, 2029)
Ogden: Pep likes him, and he’ll play next season.
Verdict: Keep
Erling Haaland (24, 2034)
Ogden: The club won’t confirm, but we both think there’s a release clause that becomes active in two years… which, funnily enough, is when Pep’s contract expires.
Verdict: Keep
Omar Marmoush (26, 2029)
Verdict: Keep
Overall verdict
The tricky thing here is that it’s Pep Guardiola, and he’s so unpredictable. He has varied City’s systems and styles this season and other than a handful of players — Gvardiol and Dias at the back, Rodri in midfield, Haaland up front — there aren’t many guys who are nailed-on regulars.
We would bring in a goalkeeper — maybe two, if we can shift both Ederson and Ortega although that’s unlikely — and there’s a fair amount of money to spend. James Trafford, who came through the ranks at the club and has done very well at Burnley, has a £40m buy-back clause and might work as an alternative to Ederson in his final year, if he stays. Otherwise, there’s no shortage of quality keepers out there.
At the back, we’re looking for someone to compete with Matheus Nunes for the rightback job. There’s some flexibility, too: if O’Reilly doesn’t work out at leftback, you can move Gvardiol there and play Akanji or perhaps a new central defender. We think you have to look for quality and opportunity more than tactical fit because you have players with the versatility to adjust your team and a manager who can operate in different systems.
Even with De Bruyne leaving, there are a lot of bodies to accommodate in midfield (plus Echeverry and Perrone), so it’s a question of who you can shift out of Bernardo Silva, McAtee and possibly Foden. The club don’t have a lot of leverage here and might well be stuck with a lot of these guys.
The wingers are solid and young: you’re OK there, but again, if there’s a superstar out there you really like and you have the opportunity to sign him, you have to go for it. We’re at the stage — and it feels weird saying this given their recent history — that City need upgrades of individual quality.
Up front, they’re obviously fine with Haaland, but we think they could use a young back-up with a similar playing style. It’s notable how Guardiola has to shift City’s entire approach when Haaland is rested or injured.
We’re at the end of a cycle, which is another way of saying we’re at the start of a new cycle. Renewing this side and making them younger is important, but so too is adding talent, regardless of position. If they have the opportunity to move for a playmaker like Florian Wirtz or, a notch down, Tijjani Reijnders (they’ve been linked to both), they have to do it and then build around them. The last top-shelf superstar to sign for City was Haaland, and that was three years ago.
The resources are there. You can’t make Pep’s final two years (we think) at the club into a rebuilding job.
