Liverpool have now reached the halfway stage of their Premier League campaign and if the second half is as good as the first, we have a lot to be excited about.
Arne Slot has overseen his first 19 Premier League games and he has just one loss on his record – a defeat against Nottingham Forest that he reminds us about often.
The Reds are revitalised and primed for a run at the title thanks to a strong foundation from the first 19 matches, with 46 points – four more than this time last season.
There is, rightly, plenty of optimism for what could be in store in the months to come, so how does Slot’s start compare and what does it signal for the second half of the season?
This season vs. last 12
Liverpool have averaged 37.6 points after 19 games since 2012/13, and as we well know we are already above that figure.
Slot’s side have 46 points banked, eight above the average over the last 12 seasons. It is also the fifth time that Liverpool have had more than 40 points at this juncture.
In each of those seasons (2021/22, 2019/20, 2018/19, 2016/17), the Reds finished the campaign no lower than fourth in the table.
This season’s tally is slightly below what Jurgen Klopp‘s side achieved in 2018/19 (51 points) and 2019/20 (55), when they came within one point of top spot and won the title, respectively.
It is more than the 2021/22 season (44), though, when Liverpool, again, lost the title by a single point to finish second with 92 points.
What if we have a repeat 19?
- 46 points after 19 games is the best return since 2019/20
- An identical return in the second half of the season will lead to 92 points
- Average points won by Premier League champions is 87.8 points
It will not be straightforward to continue at the same rate as the first 19 as a dip in form and results is almost inevitable, we’ve had signs, but where would it leave the Reds if they did?
Having dropped just 11 points in the first 19 games, the same trajectory over the second half of the campaign would see Slot’s side finish with 92 points.
Only in 2019/20 (99 points) and 2018/19 (97) have Liverpool surpassed that figure by the end of the season, in 2021/22 they finished on 92 points.
Moreover, it is a total that would have been enough to win the Premier League title in 26 of the competition’s 32 seasons since 1992/93 – surely our bad luck has run out on the front!
The average points won by the champions across the Premier League era is 87.8 points, which is still achievable this season for Arsenal, Nottingham Forest, Chelsea, Newcastle and Man City (just).
Their margin for error, however, is a lot smaller than Liverpool’s as Slot’s men have a six-point gap and a game in hand.
Slot’s promising record
We know Klopp’s record in the second part of a season was typically strong, but we have yet to see what it will be like under Slot – though his record with Feyenoord makes for positive reading.
The Dutchman oversaw three full Eredivisie seasons with Feyenoord and his side’s record improved in the second half of a season in two of his three campaigns.
As you can see from the table above, he only failed to improve his record in his first season at the club by just two points.
If he were to do the same at Liverpool this year, it would result in a 90-point finish for the Reds – which would be their highest since 2021/22 (92 points).
This Reds outfit still has a lot of kinks to iron out and that room for improvement ought to bode well for Slot’s side as they look to achieve the ultimate goal come May.
