Leipzig's disastrous Champions League has Rose on the brink

German football vocabulary is full of the verb “passen,” which translates as to be a good fit or to match a situation. When a coach or player zur Mannschaft passt (fits a team), there is much cause for internal celebration as there are never any guarantees when an appointment is made.

Marco Rose has always seemed to me to be the perfect example of someone who matches RB Leipzig and their outlook. For starters, Rose is a Leipziger, someone who hails from the city itself and has a deep grounding in the Red Bull style and daily workings having also served successfully as coach of the RB Salzburg operation.

Unlike many who have come before him at Leipzig, Rose is less doctrinaire in his tactical philosophy, believing not just in Gegenpressing and Umschaltfussball (football centred around transitional moments) but in a healthy degree of pragmatism according to the task at hand. Flexibility forms an important part of his coaching repertoire.

That Rose has lasted 826 days in the job to date makes him second behind only Alexander Zorniger on the Leipzig longevity scale since the club came into being in 2009.

From the time when Oliver Mintzlaff became the most important decision maker at Red Bull, the tendency has been to act rather than hesitate when a crisis — or the merest hint of one — engulfs Leipzig. Just ask Jesse Marsch or especially Domenico Tedesco, for whom a maiden trophy lift — the DFB-Pokal in 2022 — and appearance in a European semifinal wasn’t enough to give him even 10 months at the helm.

Rose’s time in charge has mostly been calm with another Pokal triumph in 2023 and a first ever DFL-Supercup success over Bayern Munich a few weeks later as if to rubber stamp the undeniable spirit of improvement under his stewardship.

This season, the UEFA Champions League in its new format offered a golden chance for RB Leipzig to mix it with the best clubs in Europe and not just the three others landing in their group under the old competition setup. The entire experience has been something of an Abreibung (thrashing) for a club with genuinely lofty ambitions.

There was certainly some bad luck involved in their initial defeats against Atletico Madrid, Juventus and Liverpool, but to lose at Celtic Park was a Tiefpunkt (low point) against a motivated side with a considerably more modest budget. The subsequent losses against Inter Milan and on Tuesday to Aston Villa in a cruel denouement have served to make Leipzig’s abysmal Königsklasse (Champions League) record stand out: played six, lost six. All hope of squeezing into the playoff stage have now been eviscerated.

As can often be the case, injuries — here suffered by Xavi Simons and David Raum among others — can make or break a chapter for any coach.

Last Wednesday’s DFB-Pokal quarterfinal meeting with Eintracht Frankfurt felt like every bit the decider for Rose. Lose to a team on the rise and face the consequences. Instead, Leipzig put on their best show for many a long week with Loïs Openda and Benjamin Sesko playing starring roles.

While it was enough to temporarily change the subject of a Trainerdiskussion (a discussion about the coach) in Leipzig, that conversation is very much alive again now with the Winterpause arriving in little more than a week.

Roger Schmidt, like Rose, is someone with a history at Red Bull, he’s also available and has held talks with Mintzlaff in the past. Erik ten Hag, for all his problems at Manchester United, remains highly regarded within the German football ecosystem.

Perhaps Mintzlaff will want to act before Jürgen Klopp officially becomes Red Bull’s head of global soccer in January. It’s doubtful Klopp would want his first act to be the jettisoning of a friend and old ally: Rose played for Klopp at Mainz between 2002 and 2008.

Pokal beckons for Leipzig, Leverkusen

Leipzig, for all their recent woes, will go into Sunday afternoon’s DFB-Pokal quarterfinal draw from the Deutsche Fussball Museum in Dortmund feeling a third lift of the Pott in four years is very much within their reach. With Bayern, Borussia Dortmund and Eintracht Frankfurt all eliminated, the portents look especially positive for last season’s Pokalsieger: Bayer Leverkusen.

The fact is no one will want to draw die Werkself when Olympic handball silver medalist Julian Köster selects the eight teams in match order. Leverkusen, after their Champions League late show against Inter in midweek, have reeled off six successive wins in all competitions, while if you go back over their past 76 official matches, you’ll find only three defeats.

I’m enjoying the tactical tweaks from Xabi Alonso, who from being an avowed 3-4-3 coach now keeps us all guessing from one game to the next. The 4-2-2-2 constellation against the Italian side proved perfect for the assignment.

A valuable part, incidentally, of the DFB-Pokal draw is the home protection given to 3. Liga sides and below. So, third-tier Arminia Bielefeld, after having already ousted Bundesliga clubs Union Berlin and SC Freiburg, are guaranteed to be playing at their own Schüco Arena, which to most people will always be the rocking Bielefelder Alm.

This is a tradition well worth keeping.

St. Pauli‘s surprising Bundesliga survival

I’m becoming ever more convinced by St. Pauli’s ability to secure the Klassenverbleib (preserving their Bundesliga status). Previously it was legitimate to worry about the overall lack of attacking punch within the ranks of the Kiezkicker, but with such a frugal defence, it’s easy to see Alexander Blessin’s side continuing to pick up points in tight matches.

Their second-half performance in Leverkusen last week, capped off by a sparkling goal from Morgan Guilavogui, was a tribute to the gumption and belief St. Pauli possess as a squad. Sadly, Guilavogui must serve a suspension this weekend, ruling him out of the Nordduell (northern duel) with Werder Bremen.

I’m not convinced the current bottom, Holstein Kiel and VfL Bochum, have enough quality to get close to St. Pauli this season. Heidenheim, meanwhile, have found their Conference League involvement to be burdensome in terms of consolidating league form.

St. Pauli to stay up, then! It’s not prediction I would have made with any confidence back in August.