Bayern's dominance, finest matchups, prime 4 race and extra

The enjoyable league is sort of again! After greater than two months off — one for the World Cup and one for the customary winter break — the Bundesliga will lastly resume play Friday, and it’ll accomplish that with a doozy, as Bayern Munich visits RB Leipzig (2:30 p.m. ET, ESPN+).

The pre-World Cup portion of the membership season went fairly effectively in Germany. Ten-time defending Bundesliga champion Bayern Munich discovered itself in a scrap for some time, with upstarts like Union Berlin and Freiburg occupying elevated positions on the desk and RB Leipzig and Eintracht Frankfurt each constructing fairly a little bit of momentum earlier than the break. Plus, of the eight German golf equipment that entered UEFA competitions, seven ended up in knockout rounds.

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The motion resumes with some fairly high-leverage matches this weekend — Bayern-RBL on Friday, Freiburg-Wolfsburg on Saturday, Bayer Leverkusen–Borussia Monchengladbach on Sunday — and resumption of UEFA play is lower than a month away. Time to catch up!

This is every part it is advisable comply with because the Bundesliga returns.

Let’s begin with the plain: Can anybody problem Bayern?

The brief reply: Most likely not, however please learn the lengthy reply.

OK, I stated Bayern was concerned in a scrap above; I did not point out that the Rekordmeister received their last six league matches earlier than the World Cup stoppage to tug 4 factors away from Freiburg and 6 away from RBL. They gave the impression to be wresting management of the league, and in the event that they win in Leipzig on Friday, they are going to be in glorious form for an unimaginable eleventh straight title.

This is how the highest half of the desk appears to be like coming into the Ruckrunde (the again half or so of the season):

• 1. Bayern Munich: 34 factors (+36 GD)

• 2. Freiburg: 30 factors (+8)

• 3. RB Leipzig: 28 factors (+9)

• 4. Eintracht Frankfurt: 27 factors (+8)

• 5. Union Berlin: 27 factors (+4)

• 6. Borussia Dortmund: 25 factors (+4)

• 7. Wolfsburg: 23 factors (+4)

• 8. Borussia Monchengladbach: 22 factors (+4)

• 9. Werder Bremen: 21 factors (-2)

Union Berlin was the story of September and October, going unbeaten in seven matches to start the season and spending weeks in first place. They wanted the break greater than anybody within the league, nevertheless; after an exhilarating last-second objective in opposition to Gladbach allowed them to hold first place into November, they proceeded to attract at house with Augsburg and lose by a mixed 9-1 at Bayer Leverkusen and Freiburg. They have been operating out of steam and had shortly fallen to fifth.

One other upstart, nevertheless, was persevering with to thrive. The underlying xG figures prompt Freiburg had higher endurance than Union regardless that they trailed within the desk, and after a dismal 5-0 loss at Bayern on Oct. 16, Christian Streich’s squad rebounded to win 4 of 5 earlier than the break.

Freiburg clings to second place forward of an RBL squad that was in torrid kind in November — unbeaten of their final eight league matches with 4 straight Champions League victories, too — and an Eintracht Frankfurt group that rallied to advance within the Champions League and produced some dominant victories (amid a couple of letdowns) in league play: 4-0 over RBL, 5-1 over Leverkusen, 4-2 over Hoffenheim, 3-1 over Gladbach.

We might see loads of plot twists within the race for second or third place, however except accidents take a toll, it seems Bayern is in nice form to roll to the title once more. After a run of three league attracts and a loss to Augsburg, Bayern’s title odds, per FiveThirtyEight, had sunk to 74% in September — panic ranges by their requirements. However after their November scorching streak, they’re again as much as 93%, with solely RBL (4%) and Freiburg (1%) holding on to long-shot hopes.

Can Bayern be one of the best in Europe with out Manuel Neuer?

Bayern’s smoking-hot November kind, mixed with Manchester Metropolis‘s current rickety moments, imply that Bayern presently ranks first in 538’s SPI scores and, regardless of a tough round-of-16 draw in opposition to PSG, holds one of the best general Champions League title odds for the time being at 26%. However these odds are primarily based on the model of Bayern that has Neuer at goalkeeper, Lucas Hernandez within the center-back rotation and Noussair Mazraoui as an possibility at right-back.

All three of these gamers are out for the time being — Mazraoui with coronary heart irritation following a bout with COVID, Hernandez with an ACL tear suffered on the World Cup and Neuer with a critical knee harm suffered whereas snowboarding after the World Cup. Mazraoui will return earlier than the others; Neuer’s situation, mixed together with his age (36), have led Bayern to look into long-term substitute choices at goalkeeper and Thursday introduced us affirmation that they’d agreed a transfer for Gladbach’s Yann Sommer, who’s solely two years youthful however, if we’re being trustworthy, appears to be like about 26. (He additionally stopped an unimaginable 19 of 20 pictures on objective in opposition to Bayern again in August.)

Bayern nonetheless boasts a humiliation of riches in assault, particularly if veteran ahead Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting holds onto the career-best kind that he discovered pre-break. (He had scored 10 targets in his final 9 appearances in all competitions.) However depth has taken a serious hit on the again, to such a level that Bayern signed veteran Daley Blind, most just lately of Ajax, as a stopgap possibility at each center-back (behind Dayot Upamecano and Matthijs De Ligt) and fullback (behind Benjamin Pavard and Alphonso Davies).

Evidently, defensive glitches aren’t actually what you need to be struggling whenever you’ve bought a pair of season-defining matches in opposition to Kylian Mbappe, Leo Messi, Neymar and PSG on the horizon. PSG have not lit the world aflame since their very own restart — they’ve misplaced at each Lens and Rennes in league play since Jan. 1 — however the potential is ceaselessly apparent.

The Bundesliga vs. Europe

Certainly, German groups fared fairly effectively in European competitions final fall. Of the 5 groups that entered the Champions League — final 12 months’s prime 4 groups in league play, plus Europa League winner Eintracht Frankfurt — 4 superior to the knockout rounds, and Bayer Leverkusen overcame its dreadful league kind to at the very least end third in its group and subsequently qualify for the Europa League knockouts.

In the meantime, each of Germany’s Europa League groups (Freiburg and Union Berlin) superior. The one group knocked out of competitions totally: Koln, which got here up one level wanting advancing within the Convention League. Contemplating how poor their kind was in league play, their failure wasn’t an unimaginable shock.

Seven of 18 Bundesliga groups, then, have knockout matches on the horizon. The draw didn’t do a lot of them favors, however let’s stroll by what every of the seven groups is going through.

Champions League

Bayern Munich – Group stage: first place in Group C (18 factors, +16 GD)
– Subsequent opponent: PSG (February 14 and March 8)
– Odds (per FiveThirtyEight): 69% to advance to quarterfinals, 26% to win last

RB Leipzig – Group stage: second place in Group F (12 factors, +4 GD)
– Subsequent opponent: Manchester Metropolis (February 22 and March 14)
– Odds: 27% to advance to quarterfinals, 3% to win last

Borussia Dortmund – Group stage: second place in Group G (9 factors, +5 GD)
– Subsequent opponent: Chelsea (February 15 and March 7)
– Odds: 43% to advance to quarterfinals, 2% to win last

Eintracht Frankfurt – Group stage: second place in Group D (10 factors, -1 GD)
– Subsequent opponent: Napoli (February 21 and March 15)
– Odds: 30% to advance to quarterfinals, 1% to win last

Bayern drew one of the best of the second-place groups, RBL drew one of the best of the first-place groups that are not named Bayern, and Eintracht drew what has been the most well liked group in Europe for a lot of the season, Luciano Spalletti’s Napoli. There’s solely a few 2% likelihood that each one 4 groups advance to the quarterfinals, however Bayern is favored, and at the very least one of many trio of RBL, Eintracht and Borussia Dortmund (taking part in an out-of-form Chelsea) ought to advance as effectively.

Europa League

Freiburg – Group stage: first place in Group G (14 factors, +10 GD)
– Subsequent opponent: bye
– Odds: 100% to advance to spherical of 16, 4% to win last

Bayer Leverkusen – Group stage: third place in Champions League Group B (5 factors, -4 GD)
– Subsequent opponent: Monaco (February 16 and February 23)
– Odds: 54% to advance to spherical of 16, 3% to win last

Union Berlin – Group stage: second place in Group D (12 factors, +2 GD)
– Subsequent opponent: Ajax (February 16 and February 23)
– Odds: 25% to advance to spherical of 16,

Freiburg took care of enterprise, going unbeaten in group play and advancing simply, however similar to final season, Union Berlin needed to overcome one other sluggish European begin — 1-0 losses in its first two matches — to advance. Not like final 12 months, nevertheless, Eisern Union certainly superior. Now they face a tough activity in opposition to Dutch heavyweight Ajax.

Can Freiburg or Union Berlin end within the prime 4?

The story of German soccer over the previous decade or so has been three-pronged:

• 1. Bayern crafts a well-tuned and astonishingly constant wrecking ball.

• 2. Different aspiring German heavyweights fail to get the arrows all pointed in the correct course.

• 3. Nicely-organized upstarts make it fairly far up the desk, at the very least partly due to (2).

It isn’t Freiburg’s or Union Berlin’s fault that Borussia Dortmund has been caught in third gear this season, or that Bayer Leverkusen or RB Leipzig began the season terribly below managers who had led them to excessive heights final season (Gerardo Seoane and Domenico Tedesco, respectively), or that Eintracht Frankfurt cannot defend set items, or that Borussia Monchengladbach cannot defend, interval.

Their respective ceilings and budgets may not be as excessive as these different golf equipment, however Freiburg’s Streich and Union’s Urs Fischer have had their groups taking part in high-level, high-effort, highly-organized ball for some time now, they usually proceed to creep increased and better up the desk.

Freiburg’s sixth-place end final season was its finest within the Bundesliga since 2012-13, and Union’s fifth-place end was its finest ever. They’ve the 2 finest non-Bayern defenses within the league, Freiburg owns set items, Union counter-attacks in addition to anybody, and when you give both group a lead, they don’t seem to be going to let go of it.

Union’s November funk dropped them to fifth place, however they’re nonetheless tied for a top-four spot within the factors division, and Freiburg stays in second. With RBL, Eintracht and Borussia Dortmund all on the brink of mount top-four fees, some of the attention-grabbing subplots of the approaching months will likely be whether or not these upstarts, two of the best groups in Europe to root for, can set up adequate kind to threaten a excessive end as effectively.

Can Schalke keep up? (And who else is more likely to go down?)

The underside half of the Bundesliga desk is nearly as clustered collectively as the highest half, with 9 groups — half the league — inside 5 factors of the relegation zone.

• 10. Mainz: 19 factors (-5 GD)

• 11. Hoffenheim: 18 factors (+0)

• 12. Bayer Leverkusen: 18 factors (-1)

• 13. Koln: 17 factors (-8)

• 14. Augsburg: 15 factors (-8)

• 15. Hertha Berlin: 14 factors (-3)

• 16. Stuttgart: 14 factors (-9)

• 17. Bochum: 13 factors (-22)

• 18. Schalke: 9 factors (-19)

Every of the underside three groups have already canned managers this season — Bochum’s Thomas Reis was despatched away in September, Stuttgart’s Pellegrino Matarazzo and Schalke’s Frank Kramer in October (Schalke changed Kramer with Reis, really) — and whereas all three of them have struggled to indicate sustained indicators of life, they’re every just one scorching streak from climbing out of the cellar.

The poster kids for the “You can’t just spend your way out of bad decision-making because debt is a no-no” results of Germany’s rigorous membership certification requirements, Schalke bottomed out in document trend a few years in the past, struggling relegation for the primary time in three many years and practically breaking an unbreakable winless streak within the course of. They rebounded to win the second division final season with a late rally — I used to be at their promotion-clinching win; it was unimaginable — however their cash issues did not instantly vanish.

They needed to change six of final season’s prime 12 gamers from a minutes perspective, and of the 4 gamers they spent precise switch charges on, just one has performed greater than 700 minutes to date (left again Thomas Ouwejan). They misplaced center-backs Ko Itakura (he was on mortgage) and Malick Thiaw (to AC Milan), and their protection has been predictably terrible (2.1 targets allowed per match, second-worst within the league).

They have been poor from an xG perspective (-0.55 xG differential per match, third-worst), and their precise objective differential (-1.27 per match) suggests they have been terribly unfortunate as effectively. However they completed November with a win over Mainz and a decent displaying in opposition to Bayern. That stored them inside attain of the opposite groups close to the underside.

Schalke’s post-restart schedule is brutal: visits from RB Leipzig and Wolfsburg and journeys to Eintracht, Gladbach and Union, all amongst their first six matches earlier than they play Stuttgart and Bochum back-to-back. They subsequently nonetheless stay in dire general form, as 538’s relegation odds attest.

Schalke is presently 75% more likely to go down, adopted by Bochum (51%), Augsburg (33%), Hertha (21%), Stuttgart (18%) and Koln (9%).

Augsburg loved a three-match profitable streak in September however went winless over its final seven matches and has the second-worst xG differential within the league. The Fuggerstadter at all times rally to avoid wasting themselves, however they will probably want one other rally within the months to come back. Bochum appeared assured of a bottom-two end for some time, too, however received 4 of its final seven matches earlier than the break.

If there is a sturdy rebound candidate among the many backside 5, it could possibly be Stuttgart, which employed grasp relegation-avoider Bruno Labbadia over the break and truly managed a constructive xG differential over the primary 15 matches (+0.02, tenth general). They rank second in xG per shot allowed (0.10) however eleventh in save share, a distinction that would progress towards the imply, they usually’ve been unfortunate to attain solely three set-piece targets contemplating the standard of probabilities created. This is not a good group, but it surely in all probability is not the third-worst group within the league both.

It is the final 4 months for Christopher Nkunku in Leipzig and (in all probability) Jude Bellingham in Dortmund

It is a double-edged sword: When you construct the repute for being an awesome developer of younger expertise, you (a) find yourself on the entrance of the road for bringing in future younger expertise and (b) lose that expertise to large transfers fairly quickly after. The cash’s good, but it surely feels such as you’re at all times in transition.

RB Leipzig and Borussia Dortmund are very a lot on this boat. Prior to now 5 years or so, BVB has raked in enormous switch charges for Ousmane Dembele and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang in 2017, Christian Pulisic in 2018, Jadon Sancho in 2021 and Erling Haaland in 2022. RBL did the identical with Naby Keita in 2018, Timo Werner in 2020 and Dayot Upamecano and Ibrahima Konate in 2021. They’ve introduced in loads of new, younger stars with that income, however fifth gear and a real Bayern problem continues to really feel barely out of their grasp.

Each will attempt to at the very least lock up top-four positions this winter and spring whereas figuring out that they will be seeing the identical turnover quickly. RBL attacker Nkunku, one of the best participant within the Bundesliga during the last season-plus — and a participant nonetheless working again from a November knee harm — is off to Chelsea this coming summer season, and whereas we do not know BVB midfielder Jude Bellingham’s vacation spot simply but, it is all however assured that he will likely be leaving on a big-money switch as effectively. RBL defender Josko Gvardiol, in the meantime, was one of many World Cup’s breakout stars and will additionally command an enormous payment within the months (if not days) forward.

Each of those golf equipment nonetheless boast scads of younger gamers with enormous potential — RBL will nonetheless have Dominik Szoboszlai (22), Dani Olmo (24), Mohamed Simakan (22), amongst others, and just lately introduced Werner again; Borussia Dortmund will nonetheless have Karim Adeyemi (21), Nico Schlotterbeck (23), Gio Reyna (20) and, if he indicators a brand new contract quickly, Youssoufa Moukoko (18). However these variations of those golf equipment solely have a couple of extra months collectively. What kind of noise can they make within the meantime?

5 World Cup stars to comply with

Gvardiol was one among fairly a couple of Bundesliga athletes to make an influence on the World Cup. Listed here are 5 extra gamers you might need gotten to know notably effectively following the motion in Qatar.

Ritsu Doan, MF/FW, Freiburg

The 24-year previous proper winger scored in Japan‘s wins over Germany and Spain, and in his first season with Freiburg — he joined from PSV Eindhoven in July — he is contributed two targets and two assists amongst 15 probabilities created. If Freiburg certainly continues to carry a top-four spot, he’ll be a serious purpose why.

Jamal Musiala, MF, Bayern Munich

In document time, Musiala’s gone from unimaginable prospect to easily unimaginable. The 19-year previous was one among Germany’s most dependable and artistic gamers in Qatar (he created eight probabilities with one help in simply 259 minutes), which simply continued his league kind: In 1,390 minutes in all competitions, he is mixed 12 targets with 9 assists amongst 36 probabilities created.

Randal Kolo Muani, FW, Eintracht Frankfurt

The 24-year previous scored the clinching objective in France‘s World Cup semifinal win over Morocco and, with assist from Gladbach’s Marcus Thuram, fully modified the vitality of the ultimate in opposition to Argentina after approaching as an alternative. He practically received the match in further time, and his play was not a shock to anybody who’s watched him with Die Adler this season. Since shifting from Nantes over the summer season, he is already mixed eight targets with 10 assists for Eintracht.

Niclas Fullkrug, FW, Werder Bremen

After main Bremen again up from the second division, the 29-year previous has mixed 10 targets (5 after the eightieth minute) with two assists in Bundesliga play. His kind led to his not solely getting known as as much as the nationwide group; he additionally thrived as a super-sub with two targets and an help in simply 66 minutes. Instantly he is the topic of switch rumors.

Noussair Mazraoui, DF, Bayern Munich

Taking part in principally as a left again for Morocco, the 25-year previous received 55% of his duels and accomplished 83% of his passes over 367 minutes in Qatar. He was taking part in an elevated function at proper again for Bayern earlier than the break, too, and contributed a pair of assists to their 6-1 win over Werder Bremen on November 8. The earlier he can return to motion, the higher for the Rekordmeister.

Sébastien Haller has simply made his return to the pitch for Borussia Dortmund after his testicular most cancers prognosis again in July.

He had two surgical procedures since his prognosis to deal with the tumor.

Superb

(by way of @BVB) pic.twitter.com/CEpKZslSbn

— ESPN FC (@ESPNFC) January 10, 2023

BVB tried to tug itself from the “sign young players, lose young players” cycle by bringing within the 28-year previous Haller from Ajax this previous summer season after he scored 34 targets in all competitions final season. He was nearly instantly sidelined, nevertheless, by a struggle with testicular most cancers. In some of the shifting tales of the winter, he is been cleared to return to follow, and he was prolific in a few January friendlies. He isn’t fairly able to return to full kind, however it seems that’s solely a matter of time. Unimaginable information.

Howdy once more, Florian Wirtz! How far can Bayer Leverkusen rebound?

Bayer Leverkusen’s Florian Wirtz was rising as in all probability one of the best teenager within the Bundesliga — on par with Musiala — when he suffered a knee harm final March and missed the remainder of the marketing campaign. Leverkusen maintained kind with out him, securing a spot within the league’s prime 4, however star ahead Patrik Schick endured a dreadful ending hunch this fall, making an attempt 50 pictures value 7.0 xG in all competitions however scoring solely three precise targets.

The membership certain might have used one other dynamic attacker. Die Werkself started 2022-23 in shockingly poor trend, profitable solely as soon as of their first eight league matches and falling to third-division Elversberg within the DFB-Pokal. Gerardo Seoane appeared like the most effective managers within the Bundesliga final season, however he was fired on October 5 and changed with Xabi Alonso.

Their kind didn’t enhance instantly below Alonso — they misplaced by a mixed 8-1 to Porto and Eintracht Frankfurt in a four-day span in October — however November introduced a special story. They nabbed two late attracts to complete third of their Champions League group (forward of Atletico Madrid), after which they stomped Union Berlin, Koln and Stuttgart by a mixed 9-1 to go into the break with three straight wins.

The correct-sided duo of Moussa Diaby and Jeremie Frimpong has thrived (mixed: 13 targets and eight assists amongst 57 probabilities created in all competitions), Schick will begin ending once more sooner or later, and now Wirtz returns as effectively. Leverkusen remains to be in twelfth place, 9 factors again of the highest 4, however they’re all however assured to make a cost up the desk. How a lot of 1?

Checking in on the People

The Bundesliga has lengthy been a snug spot for up-and-coming younger American gamers, and 4 such gamers have seen strong roles this season.

Joe Scally, Borussia Monchengladbach

The correct again has develop into a stalwart for his membership at solely 20 years previous. He has already logged 1,304 minutes in league play with 50 ball recoveries and 7 probabilities created. For who-knows-what-reason, U.S. supervisor Gregg Berhalter was sluggish to offer Scally a glance, however his national-team fortunes will probably change quickly irrespective of who’s managing the group.

Jordan Pefok, Union Berlin

Introduced in from Younger Boys to interchange Premier League-bound Taiwo Awoniyi this previous summer season, Pefok was a serious purpose for Union’s early surge. Regardless of lacking a while with harm, he scored three league targets with three assists on 12 probabilities created in 852 minutes. He, too, was marginalized by Berhalter, however he stays solely 26 years previous; there’s time for his national-team standing to vary as effectively.

Gio Reyna, Borussia Dortmund

A return to membership play will likely be a welcome distraction from among the unlucky off-the-pitch information Reyna has been concerned in just lately — each his turbulent World Cup and his mother and father’ response to stated turbulence. The 20-year previous attacker managed 362 minutes, two targets and 7 probabilities created for BVB whereas coming back from final season’s long-term harm points, and he’ll nearly actually play a bigger function within the Ruckrunde.

Kevin Paredes, Wolfsburg

After a breakout season with D.C. United in 2021, Wolfsburg snatched Paredes up for an almost €7 million payment final January. The 19-year previous midfielder was simply starting to emerge as a first-team menace — 173 league minutes, 15 ball recoveries, two probabilities created — when he got here down with a calf harm and missed the previous couple of pre-break matches. Now wholesome, he’ll have an opportunity to work again into the rotation.

There could possibly be yet another identify to trace within the coming months, too:

Paxten Aaronson, Eintracht Frankfurt

After a strong season with the Philadelphia Union, the attacking midfielder, youthful brother to Leeds United‘s Brenden Aaronson, just lately made the transfer to Frankfurt. Eintracht is loaded in assault, and we’ll see what sort of function the 19-year previous is ready to carve out for himself (and when). However he’ll get some mentorship from fullback and fellow American Timothy Chandler, who nonetheless cracks the Eintracht rotation every so often.