MANCHESTER City’s title bid is being derailed by the absence of a key player from last season.
And we’re not talking about injured midfield lynchpin and Ballon d’Or winner Rodri.
Because although the Spain midfielder was undeniably crucial to the triumphs of his club and country, Julian Alvarez was front and centre (and sometimes wide) in Pep Guardiola’s side in 2023/4.
And selling Alvarez to Atletico Madrid for a massive profit in the summer is no longer looking like quite as good a deal for City.
It was not only the Argentinian World Cup winner’s 11 goals and nine assists in 36 PL appearances that was important to City.
Nor was Alvarez just a useful replacement for Erling Haaland and Kevin de Bruyne when they were injured.
The versatile star also gave Guardiola the freedom to rotate his attacking options during or between games, keeping them out of the “red” zone and giving them the chance to perform at their peak more often.
But Alvarez wanted to be the main man, playing regularly in a No 10 or No 9 role. That was not going to happen any time soon, so when Atletico offered him the chance to swap Manchester, where he had never really settled, for Madrid, he wanted the move.
And City regarded as good business a fee of up to £81.5m for a wantaway player who cost an initial £14m in 2022.
Yet Guardiola knew at the time that the sale of Alvarez could come back to bite his team, admitting “if we have many, many injuries it will be a problem”.
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Guardiola added: “Maybe it is a mistake, I don’t know, but I don’t like leaving players without playing for a long time.
“When everyone is involved with a chance to play, the performance of the teams is always better.”
Unfortunately for City, they have a lot of players without a chance to play at the moment.
On the flipside, title rivals Arsenal are also feeling the effects of losing key players.
And the Gunners are more dependent on their starting 11 than City and so less equipped to cope with injuries.
Last season, four of Mikel Arteta’s squad played more than 3,000 minutes in the Premier League – William Saliba, Declan Rice, Martin Odegaard and Gabriel Magalhaes.
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Not a single City player did the same, with Rodri’s 2,937 league minutes putting him top of their workload charts but also behind Ben White (2,995) and only just ahead of Bukayo Saka (2,933).
Phil Foden, second in the City rankings with 2,865, would have been eighth in the Arsenal list.
The Gunners are undoubtedly suffering from the loss of injured captain Odegaard, whose skillset would be difficult for anyone to replace.
But a slight drop-off in form from 2023/4 ever-present Saliba and partner Gabriel is also being felt, because of injuries and a lack of match sharpness among the defensive cover.
Last weekend both Arsenal and City learned once more what can happen even to them if their best players are not fit and/or firing.
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For most of the defeat against Bournemouth, Guardiola’s men looked pretty toothless, with Haaland struggling to make an impact and a lack of options on the bench to replace him.
Andoni Iraola’s men were good value for their win.
And Arsenal gave one of their flattest performances of the last two and a bit seasons at St James’ Park, as hosts Newcastle deservedly completed back-to-back home victories over the Gunners.
At one point on Saturday, all three favourites for the title were losing.
But although Liverpool came back to beat Brighton and return to the top of the league, no one at Anfield will be complacent.
So far the Reds are coping well with the absence of the injured Diogo Jota, such is the array of attacking options that Arne Slot has.
Yet how would they perform if player of the season so far Ryan Gravenberch or Alexis Mac Allister were to be unavailable for an extended period, despite the good form of Curtis Jones?
And what if captain Virgil Van Dijk was out? When the Dutchman, like Rodri, suffered a serious knee injury that kept him out for much of the 2020/1 season, Liverpool’s title defence collapsed.
While Van Dijk and fellow centre back Joel Matip spent months on the sidelines, then Kop boss Jurgen Klopp desperately tried to plug the gap by moving central midfielders Jordan Henderson and/or Fabinho into the back four.
The entire balance of the team was thrown off and the Reds only just scraped into the top four.
City’s overall strength in depth and potential spending power in the January transfer window mean they should still be well capable of maintaining a title challenge.
But in a battle that could come down to a handful of points, the sale of Alvarez, as much as Rodri’s injury, may prove crucial.
