Damning stats expose what went wrong for Erik ten Hag at Man Utd

At the end of a draining afternoon in east London, Erik ten Hag miserably concluded: “[In] football, the best team doesn’t always win.”

Manchester United’s soon-to-be sacked manager had two major gripes after watching his side toil to a 2-1 loss at West Ham United’s London Stadium on Sunday afternoon in what conspired to be his final game in charge of the club. When Ten Hag wasn’t wailing against the “injustice” of Jarrod Bowen’s match-winning stoppage-time penalty, he was bemoaning the numerous scoring opportunities squandered by his players.

“We have to score,” the Dutch coach fumed, “we created so many chances, we should have been two or three goals up.” Unfortunately for Ten Hag, the sight of his forwards fluffing their lines was nothing new.

Expected goals (xG) is a familiar concept in football by now which provides an estimate of how many times an average team would be expected to score based on the quality of chances they create. Comparing a team’s xG with their actual goal tally offers a rough assessment of how efficient each side has been at the sharp end of the pitch. By this metric, United are the Premier League‘s most wasteful outfit.

According to Opta‘s estimations, Manchester United have had shots worth between 14 and 15 goals. Yet, their actual tally stands at a miserable eight in nine league games. Not since the 1973/74 campaign have United mustered as few goals at this stage of a top-flight season. Ominously, they were relegated that year.

Alejandro Garnacho kickstarted the wayward shooting show by clattering an effort off the crossbar within the opening two minutes of Sunday’s loss to West Ham. It was the third time the Argentine has been denied by the woodwork this season – more often than any other player in the division. Diogo Dalot was guilty of the most glaring miss, shanking the ball high and wide of an unguarded West Ham goal in the first half, but Bruno Fernandes has been United’s most chronic culprit.

The out-of-form skipper has rattled off 28 shots this season – including five against West Ham – and is yet to score a league goal. No scoreless player in the division can match Fernandes’ swollen shot count or his xG tally, which stands at 2.5. Summer arrival Joshua Zirkzee has also been particularly wayward in front of goal this term.

The worst Premier League finishers – 2024/25

However, for all of the criticism which can be rightfully directed at United’s poor finishers, they have been undoubtedly unlucky this term.

xG provides an estimate of each shot at the moment just before boot makes contact with the ball. Post-shot xG (PSxG) lives up to its name and takes into consideration the speed and trajectory of each strike after it has been struck. PSxG offers a clearer picture of each team’s finishing ability and a goalkeeper’s shot-stopping quality. United have come up against a glut of inspired performers.

No team in the Premier League has seen the opposition goalkeeper prevent more goals than Manchester United. Based on the quality of each shot on target, United have been denied between five and six goals by their opponent’s number one.

West Ham’s 39-year-old custodian Lukasz Fabianski rolled back the years at the London Stadium, rebuffing four shots, including a particularly impressive reflex stop to deny Casemiro on the cusp of half-time. Fulham’s Bernd Leno performed well in the opening day defeat and Emi Martinez had to be at his best to secure a 0-0 draw for Aston Villa earlier this month.

Manchester United’s former player, Dean Henderson, pulled off a slew of miraculous stops to keep a clean sheet for Crystal Palace at Selhurst Park in September. “It’s an easy summary,” Eagles boss Oliver Glasner admitted post-game, “we needed a great goalkeeper, and we had a great goalkeeper.”

Ten Hag could have done with some great finishers – or a change of luck – but had neither before he was finally given his marching orders. The Red Devils now find themselves without a permanent manager, slumped in 14th place and already 12 points adrift of league-leading Manchester City.

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