2023 Epsom Derby Trends: Key Stats To Find The Big Classic Winner

By admin Last updated May 25, 2023

Use our 2023 Epsom Derby developments to search out the most effective profiles primarily based on previous winners of the race. Together with 90% of the final 21 winners positioned 1st or 2nd final day out, whereas 33% of favourites since 2002 have landed the large English Classic horse race.

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Epsom Derby Trends to Assist You Find The 2023 Winner

The fourth English Classic was first run in 1780 so it’s no shock many Epsom Derby developments have constructed up through the years.

Final yr we noticed the Sir Michael Stoute yard successful their sixth Derby when Desert Crown powered house and the veteran coach can be hoping for a repeat with Passenger if connections fork out the complement price for the Dante Stakes third.

One other steady which have a high file within the Epsom Derby is Aidan O’Brien. Properly, once we say ‘high file’ we imply the most effective ever file!

With 8 wins within the well-known English Classic O’Brien is the successful most coach within the historical past of the race – together with his haul of successes beginning solely in 2001 with Galileo. He’ll be hoping for win quantity 9 on June third with Auguste Rodin wanting one in every of his major 2023 Epsom Derby runners.

Godolphin can even be searching for their third Derby winner since 2018 and have a dwell probability with Navy Order, who received the Lingfield Derby Trial final day out. Whereas all of the headlines are prone to be grabbed by Frankie Dettori, who can be using in his final Epsom Derby. The two-time earlier successful rider is hanging up his boots on the finish of the season and can be hoping to steal the prize with a horse known as Arrest.

What Date & Time Is The 2023 Epsom Derby?

Time/Date: 1:30pm (Saturday third June 2023)
Racecourse: Epsom
Purse/Winner: £850,650
TV: Racing TV / ITV
Odds: Navy Order 11/4 | Auguste Rodin 9/2 | Arrest 5/1

Look For Horses That Have Raced 5 Or Much less Occasions

When wanting on the Epsom Derby developments a great place to begin is to see what number of earlier runs your fancy has had. With 19 of the final 21 winners racing not more than 5 occasions this can be a helpful stat that may rule out a couple of.

Of the principle gamers this yr, latest Dante Stakes winner The Foxes would fall down with 6 previous runs.

90% Of The Final 21 Winners Completed 1st Or 2nd Final Time

Subsequent up is to search for horses that completed first or second final day out. Once more 19 of the final 21 Derby winners headed to Epsom off the again of a gold or silver final day out.

Sure, most will tick this Epsom Derby pattern, however the principle Aidan O’Brien runner Auguste Rodin, who was unplaced within the 2000 Guineas final time, has this to beat.

Current Winners Have Gained 67% Of Runnings Since 2002

Following on from the final Derby pattern, we are able to take this a bit additional with 67% of the final 21 winners having received their most up-to-date race.

The major gamers – Navy Order, Arrest Sprewell and The Foxes all received final day out, however White Birch, Passenger (if supplemented) and Auguste Rodin didn’t.

81% Of The Final 21 Winners Returned 7/1 Or Shorter

Sure, since 2017 the Epsom Derby has thrown up a couple of bigger-priced winners with Wings Of Eagles (40/1), Masar (16/1), Serpentine (25/1) and Adayar (16/1), so a small phrase of warning right here.

Nevertheless, the longer-term Derby developments inform us that 17 of the final 21 winners returned 7/1 or shorter.

This yr – these prone to be priced on this area can be Navy Order, Arrest and Auguste Rodin.

90% Of The Final 10 Winners Got here From Stalls 7 or greater

Many horse racing punters assume that with the Derby being run over 1m4f the draw doesn’t actually come into play.

However with Epsom a singular observe that has a number of turns, then having a great place proper from the beginning is usually a massive plus. That is backed up with 9 of the final 10 winners coming stalls 7-12 (inc), with three winners from stall 12 (2 of the final 3) and two from the ten draw).

Adayar was the additionally the one winner from stall 1 within the final 21 years.

Irish Skilled Horses Have Gained 48% Since 2002

The final two Derby winners have come from Newmarket-based yards (Charlie Appleby and Sir Michael Stoute), but it surely’s price noting that the Irish have received virtually half of the final 21 runnings (48%).

After all, the dominance of Aidan O’Brien is among the causes for this file however Sea The Stars and Harzard for John Oxx and Dermort Weld additionally added to this.

What Is The Epsom Derby Favourites File Like?

We’ve seen 13 of the final 21 Epsom Derby favourites positioned however they’ve additionally a good file of successful too.

Since 2002 favorite backers have been rewarded 7 occasions which works out at a ‘not too shabby’ 33% strike-rate.

The 2023 Derby favorite is likely to be Navy Order, however with the Frankie Dettori issue, his experience Arrest might simply are available for assist within the betting.

Aidan O’Brien Is Mr Epsom Derby

We’ve already touched on the highest Derby file of Aidan O’Brien – he’s received the race a record-breaking 8 occasions and is probably the most profitable coach within the historical past of the race.

O’Brien’s first win got here in 2001 with Galileo, who has additionally gone onto sire many different Derby winners for the Ballydoyle man. His most up-to-date winner was the shock winner Serpentine, who led from the entrance and by no means noticed one other horse within the race.

Aidan O’Brien can be no stranger to successful the Derby with one in every of his second or third string horses – he’s had 25/1 and 40/1 winners since 2017, so don’t rule any of his out.

Charlie Appleby and Sir Michael Stoute Revered Too

With six Derby winners that began in 1981 with the well-known Shergar Sir Michael Stoute is one other man to notice within the race. He additionally took the prize 12 months in the past with Desert Crown.

Godolphin’s major handler Charlie Appleby can be a person to notice – he’s received the race twice since 2018 and will have one of many massive fancies once more in Navy Order.

What’s The Greatest Epsom Derby Trial?

The are a number of races that horses soak up earlier than the Derby – together with the Lingfield Derby Trial, Leopardstown Derby Trial, Dee Stakes and Chester Vase – however the most effective for the time being is the Dante Stakes at York.

Final yr’s Derby winner Desert Crown received the Dante and adopted up at Epsom the subsequent month, whereas through the years 11 horses have performed the double.

18 of the final 20 Dante winners ran within the Derby, with 5 successful.

This yr’s Dante Stakes winner was The Foxes, who beat White Birch (2nd) and Passenger (third).

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Epsom Derby Trends: The Final 21 Runnings

See under our in-depth Epsom Derby developments that will help you discover the most effective profile primarily based on previous winners of the race. Apply these 2023 Epsom stats to the ultimate runners to see which horses have probably the most going for them.

20/21 – Ran inside the final 5 weeks
19/21 – Raced not more than 5 occasions earlier than
19/21 – Completed 1^st or 2^nd final day out
17/21 – Had received a Group race earlier than
17/21 – Returned 7/1 or shorter within the betting
15/21 – Had run over at the least 1m2f earlier than
14/21 – Gained final day out
13/21 – Gained from a single-figure stall
13/21 – Favourites that had been positioned
12/21 – Had raced not more than 3 occasions earlier than
10/21 – Irish-trained winners
8/21 – Had received a Group One earlier than
7/21 – Skilled by Aidan O’Brien (received 8 in all)
7/21 – Gained by the favorite
5/21 – Ran within the 2,000 Guineas that season (2 winners)
5/21 – Gained the Dante Stakes (York) final day out
5/21 – Winners from stall 12 or greater
4/21 – Skilled by Sir Michael Stoute (received 5 in all)
2/21 – Gained over 1m4f earlier than
1/21 – Winners from stall 1 (Adayar)
0/21 – Run on the course earlier than
The common successful SP within the final 20 runnings is 8/1
11 Dante winners went onto win the Derby (Desert Crown (2022) & Golden Horn (2015) being the most-recent)
Just one horse that was overwhelmed within the Dante (Workforce) went onto win the Derby

Epsom Derby Coach Stats

Sir Michael Stoute received the race in 2022, 2010, 2004, 2003, 1986 & 1981
Aidan O’Brien received the race in 2002, 2001, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2017, 2018 and 2020

Epsom Derby Current Winners

2022 – Desert Crown (5/2 fav)
2021 – Adayar (16/1)
2020 – Serpentine (25/1)
2019 – Anthony Van Dyck (13/2)
2018 – Masar (16/1)
2017 – Wings of Eagles (40/1)
2016 – Harzand (13/2)
2015 – Golden Horn (13/8 fav)
2014 – Australia (11/8 fav)
2013 – Ruler Of The World (7/1)

Epsom Runners and Newest Betting Odds

We check out the most recent 2023 Epsom Derby odds from BetUK, the place you can too get a £30 free wager to make use of on the race.

Navy Order @ 3/1
Auguste Rodin @ 9/2
Arrest @ 5/1
Passenger @ 6/1
The Foxes @ 10/1
Sprewell @ 12/1
White Birch @ 14/1
Dubai Mile @ 14/1
Waipiro @ 16/1
San Antonio @ 22/1

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